Global real GDP is expected to grow at a slower rate, going from 3.3 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023 and further slowing to 2.5 percent in 2024. This slowdown is attributed to high inflation and monetary policy tightening. While a global recession is not expected, the economic outlook is predicted to be relatively subdued in the short term. Growth prospects for 2024 are stronger in emerging Asian economies but weaker in Europe and the US.

Monetary policy tightening in recent years has led to weaknesses in global housing, bank lending, and the industrial sector. However, this has been offset by strength in the service sector, particularly in labor markets, along with strong consumer spending. Recent data suggests a moderation in these positive trends, leading to slower global growth in late 2023 and early 2024.

Two main risks to the global economic outlook are highlighted: persistent core inflation (excluding food and energy) and potential financial market instability due to the rapid tightening of monetary policy. The timeline for inflation moderation is uncertain and depends on various factors. Financial markets may experience more turbulence due to the delayed effects of monetary policy changes.

Overall, businesses should prepare for a decade of slower global economic growth, with an estimated average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, down from 3.3 percent before the pandemic. Despite disruptions and uncertainties, there are opportunities for investment in both mature and emerging markets. Strategies for long-term growth include developing new business lines, strengthening corporate culture, embracing digital transformation, recruiting talent with new skills, and adopting hybrid work models where appropriate.