As the calendar flips to the last week of October 2023, the financial world is abuzz with a series of critical events and economic indicators. These events, ranging from central bank decisions to key economic data releases, have the potential to influence global markets and shape financial landscapes. In this blog post, we’ll provide an overview of what’s on the horizon for this significant week, all times are in GMT.

Monday, October 30

• 13:00 – German Oct Flash HICP: Economists are closely monitoring this release, with a consensus forecast of a year-on-year 3.6% decrease from the previous 4.3%. Deutsche Bank anticipates a significant decline in Germany’s headline CPI rate due to base effects, particularly in core CPI, food, and energy components.

Tuesday, October 31

• Early morning – BoJ Rate Decision: All eyes are on the Bank of Japan as it is expected to hold the rate at -0.10%. While there have been reports suggesting possible tweaks in the Yield Curve Control, it remains to be seen if the bank will lift the 10-year yield cap just three months after a previous significant increase.
• 10:00 – EZ Flash Q3 GDP, Oct Flash HICP: The Eurozone’s third-quarter GDP is projected to show a slight contraction at -0.1% quarter-on-quarter. For inflation, analysts expect disinflationary trends, influenced by peak base effects for energy prices.
• 12:30 – Canada Aug GDP: Canada’s GDP is expected to show subdued performance, with a consensus of a 0.1% month-on-month increase.

Wednesday, November 1

• 18:00 – Fed Rate Decision: The US Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates at the range of 5.25-5.50%. This decision comes after the bank skipped a hike in September, thanks to moderating inflation pressures.

Thursday, November 2

• 08:55 – German Oct Jobless Data: Germany’s labor market has been showing signs of deterioration in recent surveys. However, strong job retention schemes have kept unemployment data from reflecting significant weaknesses. A marginal increase in the number of unemployed people is expected.
• 09:00 – Norges Bank Rate Decision: The Norges Bank is predicted to hold its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, but a softer stance on implementing a rate hike in December may be taken due to weak September inflation data.
• 12:00 – BoE Rate Decision: The Bank of England is expected to keep the Bank Rate steady at 5.25%. A vote split of 6-3 is projected, with some members advocating for an additional hike, while others favor an unchanged decision.

Friday, November 3

• 12:30 – US Oct Non-Farm Payrolls: Analysts are closely watching this release, with a consensus of 172,000 jobs added, down from the previous month’s 336,000. While jobless claims have been historically low, there are concerns about difficulties in finding new work, and wage growth is expected to slow.
• 12:30 – Canada Oct Jobless Data: Given the lackluster economic output in previous quarters, there’s a reason to expect muted hiring. The unemployment rate may uptick to 5.6%, reflecting additional labor market slack.

Sunday, November 5

• US Daylight Saving Time Ends: Don’t forget to set your clocks back as Daylight Saving Time ends in the United States.

In summary, this last week of October and the beginning of November is loaded with significant economic events that will influence global markets and provide insights into the state of various economies. Investors and financial analysts will be keeping a close eye on these events, as their outcomes can have far-reaching consequences. Be sure to stay informed and be prepared for potential market shifts as a result of these events.