As we dive into the second week of November 2023, the world is abuzz with economic and political developments. This week’s calendar is packed with significant events, from economic data releases to high-stakes political meetings. Join us as we explore what’s in store for this week, covering the highlights and implications of each event.

Monday, November 13th:

The focus is primarily on the impending expiration of the continuing resolution on November 17th in the United States. HSBC analysts express concerns about the possibility of a government shutdown, reminiscent of the 2018-2019 episode if House Speaker Mike Johnson fails to find a compromise.

On the global stage, the APEC economic leaders’ summit in San Francisco, scheduled for November 11-17th, will feature a bilateral meeting between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi, potentially impacting international relations and trade.

Tuesday, November 14th:

07:00 – UK Labour Market Survey: The labor market survey in the UK is expected to show a payroll change of -20k. Deutsche Bank suggests that this is a significant month for public sector wage growth, with a projected 1% increase. However, the accuracy of the data remains uncertain.

10:00 – Germany Nov ZEW: Analysts predict a positive movement in the German ZEW for November. Expectations are at 5.0, with the possibility of the first positive print since April.

10:00 – Eurozone Q3 GDP (Flash): The Eurozone’s Q3 GDP data is expected to remain steady at -0.1%. However, SocGen hints at a chance for a more optimistic outlook, possibly pointing to 0% q/q growth.

13:30 – US Oct CPI: Inflation remains a focal point, with a year-on-year projection of 3.3%. BMO analysts caution that core-CPI remains a wildcard, and the data may not be sufficient for policymakers to claim victory in their battle for price stability.

23:50 – Japan Q3 GDP (Prelim): Japan’s recovery is forecasted to continue, albeit with a temporary and shallow contraction expected in Q1 2024.

Wednesday, November 15th:

02:00 – China Industrial Production: Industrial production in China is anticipated to grow year-on-year by 4.5%, but challenges in heavy sectors such as crude steel production could impact this figure.

07:00 – UK Oct CPI: The UK’s October CPI release is expected to report a drop in the headline rate due to a decline in the household energy bill cap. Analysts also foresee disinflationary trends in other sectors.

10:00 – EU Commission Economic Forecasts: The European Commission will update its growth and fiscal projections based on draft budgetary plans submitted by eurozone member states. These forecasts will be crucial for assessing compliance with EU fiscal rules.

13:30 – US Nov Retail Sales: Retail sales in the US are expected to slow down, with estimates pointing to a decline of 0.5% month-on-month, possibly due to consumer caution ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Thursday, November 16th:

00:00 – Australia Oct Labour Force: Australia’s labor market data for October is expected to show 24.5k new jobs. Westpac suggests that underutilization measures will provide insights into the state of the labor market.

14:15 – US Oct Industrial Production: Auto worker strikes are expected to weigh heavily on October industrial production in the US. The ISM manufacturing index will also provide insights into the health of the manufacturing sector.

Friday, November 17th:

07:00 – UK Oct Retail Sales: The week concludes with the UK’s October retail sales. A small rise is expected, but declining consumer confidence in October may limit the impact on overall volumes.

In conclusion, the week of November 13th promises a mix of economic and political events that can have far-reaching consequences for global markets and politics. From concerns over government shutdowns in the US to inflationary pressures, and international meetings, investors, policymakers, and analysts will be closely watching the developments of this eventful week.