As we step into the last week of January 2023, the global financial markets are closely monitoring a series of significant economic events and decisions, particularly concerning interest rates across various major economies. Here’s a breakdown of what’s on the agenda for this week:

Monday, 22nd January 2023

• 01:15 GMT – Mainland China Jan Interest Rate Decision
  • Consensus: On Hold (prev 3.45%)
  • Despite some expectations for a cut, analysts at HSBC believe the People’s Bank of China will keep rates steady, focusing instead on RRR cuts in the near term.
• Speakers: ECB President Lagarde

Tuesday, 23rd January 2023

• BOJ Jan Interest Rate Decision
  • Consensus: On Hold (prev -0.100%)
  • According to SocGen, the BoJ is expected to maintain its monetary policy, but hints at a future policy pivot might be on the horizon.

Wednesday, 24th January 2023

• 09:00 GMT – Eurozone Jan HCOB Composite PMI (Flash)
  • Consensus: 48.0 (prev 47.6)
  • HSBC anticipates a slight increase in both manufacturing and services PMIs, signaling an improvement in growth.
• 09:30 GMT – UK Jan S&P Composite PMI (Flash)
  • Consensus: 52.4 (prev 52.1)
  • Deutsche Bank forecasts a modest improvement in manufacturing, but a potential unwind in services after a surge in business activity at the end of 2023.
• 14:45 GMT – Bank of Canada Jan Interest Rate Decision
  • Consensus: On Hold (prev 5.00%)
  • The rate is expected to remain unchanged, but the National Bank of Canada suggests close attention should be paid to the Governing Council’s guidance.

Thursday, 25th January 2023

• 09:00 GMT – Germany Ifo Business Climate (Jan)
  • Consensus: 86.6 (prev 86.4)
  • HSBC expects a slight drop in the index, influenced by worsening supply chain disruptions.
• 09:00 GMT – Norway Jan Interest Rate Decision
  • Consensus: On Hold (prev 4.50%)
  • Danske Bank forecasts no change in policy until inflation concerns are significantly alleviated, with a potential rate cut expected in June.
• 11:00 GMT – Turkey One-week Repo Rate Decision
  • Consensus: 45.0% (prev 42.5%)
  • HSBC predicts a rate hike by the Central Bank of Türkiye due to persistent inflation challenges.
• 13:15 GMT – ECB Jan Interest Rate Decision
  • Consensus: On Hold (prev 4.50%)
  • Nomura expects no change in ECB rates or policy announcements in this meeting.
• 13:30 GMT – US Q4 Real GDP (Prelim) and Dec Durable Goods Orders (Prelim)
  • GDP Consensus: 2.0% (prev 4.9%)
  • Goods Orders Consensus: 1.1% (prev 5.4%)
  • Barclays forecasts a slowdown in GDP growth and a steady increase in durable goods orders.
• Speakers: BoE’s Cleland

Friday, 26th January 2023

• 13:30 GMT – US Dec Core PCE Price Index
  • Consensus: Y/Y 3.0% (prev 3.2%)
  • Deutsche Bank suggests that faster normalizing core PCE inflation could lead to an earlier rate cut by the Fed.
• Speakers: ECB President Lagarde

This week is packed with critical economic indicators and policy decisions, with a particular focus on interest rates. The outcomes of these events could significantly influence the global financial markets, making it a crucial week for investors and policymakers alike. Stay tuned for updates and analyses as these events unfold.