As investors and market spectators, we’re always on the lookout for trends and shifts that could signal a change in the market’s heartbeat. So, what happens if we pivot our gaze towards May, a period often marred by the adage “sell in May and go away”? Could we be on the cusp of witnessing May breathe new life into the markets?

Let’s indulge in a bit of speculation and examine a scenario where May defies the odds and resuscitates the market’s vigor.

Imagine it’s April, and the whispers of May’s resurgence are starting to permeate the trading floors. Here’s a hypothetical snapshot:

• May: The expected downturn of -50% doesn’t materialize; instead, we see stability or even an uptick.
• June: Predictions of a -65% drop are defied, suggesting a possible reversal of fortune.
• July: Continues the trend with a significant deviation from the anticipated -66% decline.

Consider the commodity code ‘SFRM4 COMB’, which, for illustration, is currently trading at 94.960. A slight increase of +0.070 (+0.07%) would nudge it over to 95.04. Now, this might seem marginal, but in the world of commodities, such fractional movements can be the harbingers of a larger trend.

So, what’s the strategic move if this revitalization comes to pass? Let’s talk options—specifically, the call condor option strategy.

Take the ‘SFRJ4 Call Condor’, for example. This strategy involves trades at strike prices of 94.875/95.00/95.1875/95.3125. It’s a play that seasoned traders might recognize, typically seeing movements of 4.5 on 40K volume (reference price at 94.945).

If, by April, the price hovers around 95.00, the potential for growth becomes tangible. What was a modest $4.5 could inflate to $12+.

For the trader with an ear to the ground and an eye for opportunity, this could be a chance to seize a position that others might overlook due to historical biases against May. It’s an invitation to challenge the status quo and possibly reap rewards for those willing to bet on May’s comeback.

While this is purely speculative, it’s a compelling thought experiment that encourages us to stay alert to the market’s pulse. May’s resurrection on the market stage might seem like a long shot to some, but for the astute and the bold, it could be a turning point worthy of attention.

Remember, the markets are dynamic, and yesterday’s certainties can become today’s surprises. Whether or not May comes back to life, the true takeaway is to remain adaptable, informed, and ready to act when the tides of the market shift unexpectedly.