In a world where economic indicators are closely watched by investors, policymakers, and the public alike, the latest figures out of the United States and Canada provide much to discuss. From jobless claims to GDP growth rates, these numbers give us a snapshot of the health and direction of North American economies as we move through 2024. Let’s dive into the most recent data to understand what it tells us about the current economic landscape.

The US labor market demonstrates resilience, as seen in the latest jobless claims data. Initial jobless claims remained steady at 210,000, aligning with the previous figure and slightly below the forecast of 212,000. This stability suggests that, despite various economic pressures, US employers are maintaining their workforce levels.

Continued jobless claims, representing the number of people already receiving unemployment benefits, saw a slight uptick to 1.819 million from 1.807 million, marginally above the forecast of 1.815 million. This modest increase might indicate a stabilization in the labour market, with fewer layoffs than anticipated during economic uncertainties.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices, a key measure of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices, cooled to an annual rate of 2% from the previous 2.1%, slightly below the forecast of 2.1%. This slight deceleration in core inflation is a positive sign for consumers, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures may be easing, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to adjust its monetary policy stance.

Overall, PCE Prices remained unchanged at 1.8%, suggesting that while inflation is moderating, it remains within sight of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

The US economy showed more vigor than anticipated in the final quarter of 2023, with GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.4%, outpacing both the forecast of 3.2% and the previous quarter’s growth rate. This indicates robust economic activity, driven possibly by consumer spending and business investments. Additionally, the GDP deflator, an inflation measure that reflects the prices of all goods produced domestically, remained stable at 1.7%, highlighting manageable inflationary pressures within the broader economy.

Q4 corporate profits after tax also rose by 3.9%, suggesting that businesses are navigating the economic landscape successfully, benefiting from sustained consumer demand and efficient cost management.

The Canadian economy presented a strong performance with a 0.6% month-over-month GDP growth, outstripping the 0.4% forecast and marking a significant rebound from the previous period’s stagnation. This growth indicates a robust economic expansion, likely fueled by increased consumer spending, investment, and a supportive global economic environment.

The latest economic indicators from the US and Canada paint a picture of resilience and cautious optimism. In the US, steady jobless claims, moderated inflation, and stronger-than-expected GDP growth suggest an economy that is navigating its way through inflationary pressures and global uncertainties with a degree of success. Meanwhile, Canada’s economy is showing signs of vitality, with significant monthly GDP growth highlighting its economic momentum.

As we move forward, these indicators will be vital for understanding the trajectory of North American economies, guiding policymakers, investors, and the public in their decisions and expectations for the future.