Welcome to our weekly roundup of key global events and economic data releases for the week of June 8-14, 2024. From European parliamentary elections to the much-anticipated G7 Summit in Italy, the week is packed with critical happenings that could shape the economic and political landscape.

European Parliamentary Elections: Shaping the Future of the EU

The European parliamentary elections, running from June 6-9, mark a pivotal moment for the European Union. Analysts at Barclays suggest that the results are likely to lead to a more fragmented political landscape within Europe. This election is seen as the first major step in the renewal of EU institutions, setting the stage for the subsequent selection of the Commission’s President. The outcomes of these elections will have lasting implications on the EU’s legislative and policy direction.

G7 Summit: Leaders Convene in Italy

From June 13-15, the G7 Summit will be hosted in the picturesque town of Borgo Egnazia, Fasano, in the Apulia region of Italy. This summit will bring together the leaders of the seven member states to discuss pressing global issues, including economic policies, climate change, and international security. The outcomes of these discussions are expected to influence global policy-making in significant ways.

Monday, June 10

No notable events or speakers are scheduled for Monday, setting the stage for a busy week ahead.

Tuesday, June 11

UK Labour Market Data

Time: 06:00 GMT

The UK’s Labour Force Survey for May is anticipated to show a decline in employment by 95,000 over the last three months, down from a previous increase of 178,000. HSBC notes that this data release will be critical for the Bank of England (BoE) as it prepares for its June rate decision. The labor market is expected to show signs of loosening, with a potential increase in regular pay growth to 6.2% year-on-year, influenced by a significant rise in the National Living Wage.

Speakers: ECB’s Philip Lane, ECB’s Frank Elderson

Wednesday, June 12

China May CPI Data

Time: 01:30 GMT

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May is expected to show a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4%, up from 0.3% in the previous month. Analysts at SocGen predict a marginal decline to 0.2%, with food inflation easing slightly and a potential stabilization in pork prices. Core CPI is likely to remain unchanged due to sluggish consumer demand, though rising utility prices in some areas could pose an upside risk.

UK Monthly GDP Data for April

Time: 06:00 GMT

The UK’s GDP for April is forecasted to remain flat at 0.0% month-on-month, a significant drop from the 0.4% growth observed in March. Daiwa notes that weak retail sales and potential declines in manufacturing output contribute to this projection, indicating a contraction of about 0.2% for the month.

US May CPI/Core CPI Data

Time: 12:30 GMT

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May is anticipated to hold steady at 3.4% year-on-year. According to the National Bank of Canada, while energy prices may have had a negative impact, the shelter component likely saw a decent increase, maintaining the overall price level. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have risen by 0.3% month-on-month, potentially lowering the year-on-year rate to 3.5%, the lowest in three years.

FOMC June Interest Rate Decision

Time: 18:00 GMT

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Oxford Economics suggests that while the core of the committee leans towards cutting rates later in the year, the June meeting is likely to maintain the current stance to balance the progress in reducing inflation with the need to support economic growth.

Speakers: ECB’s Luis de Guindos, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, BoC’s Tiff Macklem

Thursday, June 13

Australia May Labour Force Data

Time: 01:30 GMT

Australia’s employment figures for May are forecasted to show an increase of 30,000 jobs, following a previous rise of 38,500. Westpac highlights that this increase may reflect changes in seasonal employment patterns, with more people returning to work post-school holidays.

Eurozone Industrial Production for April

Time: 09:00 GMT

The Eurozone’s industrial production for April is expected to show a modest increase of 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.6% in March. HSBC notes that while countries like Germany, France, and Spain are likely to see positive growth, potential paybacks in Irish industrial production could pose a downside risk.

Speakers: Fed’s John Williams, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

Friday, June 14

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.10%. Analysts at SocGen predict a reduction in monthly government bond purchases while maintaining current policy rates. The central bank may also introduce additional credit controls to address housing market concerns, with a potential rate hike expected later in the year.

Speakers: ECB’s Christine Lagarde, ECB’s Philip Lane, ECB’s Luis de Guindos, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, Fed’s Lisa Cook, Fed’s Austan Goolsbee

This week promises significant developments with the potential to influence global economic policies and political landscapes. The European parliamentary elections could reshape the EU’s future direction, while the G7 Summit may lead to crucial international agreements. Stay tuned for more updates as these events unfold.