As we move into the final week of June, several key events across the globe are set to shape the economic and political landscape. From significant debates and summits to critical economic data releases, here’s a comprehensive guide to what you need to keep an eye on this week.

Major Events This Week

EU Summit in Brussels

• Dates: June 27-28, 2024
• Location: Brussels, Belgium

European leaders will gather for the EU Summit in Brussels, where key topics such as economic policy, security, and the ongoing geopolitical tensions will be discussed. Expect significant discussions on the EU’s future direction and its strategic partnerships, especially with recent moves to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region.

First US Presidential Debate

• Date: June 27, 2024
• Participants: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump

The first debate between the presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump will take place on Thursday. With Trump leading in most swing states according to Citi, this debate is pivotal. It could shift voter sentiment and influence the election’s outcome as both candidates address critical issues facing the country.

Key Economic Data and Reports

ECB’s Focus on Eurozone Inflation

European Central Bank (ECB) officials will be scrutinizing the latest Eurozone inflation expectations. With concerns over potential reemerging disinflation, any signs of economic weakening could influence future monetary policy decisions.

Micron’s Earnings

• Date: June 26, 2024

Micron Technology’s earnings report is highly anticipated, especially given the rising interest in artificial intelligence (AI). The results could significantly impact market sentiment and drive the equity narrative surrounding tech stocks and AI investments.

Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report

• Date: June 27, 2024

The Bank of England (BoE) will release its financial stability report, providing insights into the UK’s economic health and potential risks to the financial system. This report will be closely monitored for indications of future policy direction and financial stability.

Daily Highlights

Monday, June 24, 2024

08:00 GMT – Germany June IFO Business Climate Index

• Consensus: 89.6 (previous 89.3)

Analysts from Oxford Economics suggest watching whether the index aligns with the deterioration in current conditions reported in the ZEW survey or shows improvement similar to the PMI data. This could signal whether the German economy is at a turning point.

Key Speakers: ECB’s Schnabel, Nagel, Villeroy | Fed’s Waller, Goolsbee, Daly

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

12:30 GMT – Canada May CPI

• Consensus: Y/Y 2.6% (previous 2.7%)

Jocelyn Pacquet from the National Bank of Canada predicts a slight decrease in annual CPI inflation to a 38-month low of 2.5%, driven by lower gasoline prices. Core inflation metrics are also expected to remain relatively stable.

Key Speakers: ECB’s Stournaras, Nagel | Fed’s Bowman, Cook

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

01:30 GMT – Australia May CPI

• Consensus: 3.8% (previous 3.6%)

Westpac forecasts a slight increase in annual inflation, driven by factors such as the reduction of energy subsidies and potential currency depreciation. This marks the first time since September 2023 that the annual inflation rate is accelerating.

Key Speakers: ECB’s Rehn, Panetta, Lane, Kazimir, Kazaks

Thursday, June 27, 2024

08:30 GMT – Riksbank June Interest Rate Decision

• Consensus: On Hold (previous 3.75%)

The Riksbank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 3.75%, with market attention focused on the updated rate path projections and inflation forecasts, especially after an unexpected rise in May inflation.

11:00 GMT – Turkey June Interest Rate Decision

• Consensus: On Hold (previous 50.00%)

The Central Bank of Turkey is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 50%, continuing to monitor the effects of prior monetary tightening.

12:30 GMT – US May Durable Goods Orders

• Consensus: -0.2% (previous 0.6%)

A slight decline is expected due to volatility in transportation orders, with core capital goods orders anticipated to edge slightly higher, reflecting underlying business investment trends.

23:30 GMT – Japan Tokyo June CPI Ex-Fresh Food

• Consensus: Y/Y 2.0% (previous 1.9%)

Barclays predicts a slight increase in inflation as energy subsidies are reduced, with potential upside risks from currency depreciation and higher oil prices.

23:50 GMT – Japan May Industrial Production

• Consensus: M/M 2.0% (previous -0.9%)

Despite risks from auto sector disruptions, JP Morgan expects a recovery in industrial production by the end of the second quarter, barring further significant production halts.

Key Speakers: ECB’s Elderson

Friday, June 28, 2024

N/A – France, Spain, Italy June Preliminary HICP

• Focus: June inflation estimates from France, Spain, and Italy

Daiwa expects slight decreases in headline inflation for France and Spain, while Italy’s inflation rate is anticipated to remain low. This data will be crucial for assessing inflation trends in major Eurozone economies.

12:30 GMT – US May Core PCE Price Index

• Consensus: Y/Y 2.6% (previous 2.8%)

Citi analysts forecast a modest increase in core PCE inflation, which will be closely watched for indications of the Federal Reserve’s future policy stance on inflation control.

12:30 GMT – Canada April GDP

• Consensus: M/M 0.3% (previous 0.0%)

BMO Capital Markets anticipates a rebound in economic activity, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and retail sales. This could indicate a strong start for Q2 GDP growth.

Key Speakers: Fed’s Barkin, Bowman | ECB’s Villeroy

This week promises a packed schedule with crucial events and data releases that could have far-reaching impacts on the global economy and political landscape. From pivotal debates to key economic indicators, these events will likely shape market trends and influence policy decisions. Stay tuned for updates and in-depth analysis as these stories develop.