As we navigate through 2024 and look towards 2025, the financial markets are keenly focused on the interest rate decisions of major central banks around the world. The implied interest rate probabilities offer insights into what market participants expect regarding potential rate cuts, holds, or hikes. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the expectations for various central banks based on the latest data.

Bank of Canada (BoC)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• July 24, 2024: Implied rate at 4.57%, with a probable move towards a cut. The cut probability is 90.8%.
• September 4, 2024: Implied rate at 4.442%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• October 23, 2024: Implied rate at 4.281%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• December 11, 2024: Implied rate at 4.195%, with a 100% probability of a cut.

Bank of England (BoE)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• August 1, 2024: Implied rate at 5.098%, with a probable hold, hold probability at 59.2%.
• September 19, 2024: Implied rate at 5.002%, with a 79.4% probability of a cut.
• November 7, 2024: Implied rate at 4.889%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• December 19, 2024: Implied rate at 4.759%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• February 6, 2025: Implied rate at 4.647%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• March 20, 2025: Implied rate at 4.511%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• May 8, 2025: Implied rate at 4.372%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• June 19, 2025: Implied rate at 4.268%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• August 7, 2025: Implied rate at 4.207%, with a 100% probability of a cut.

Bank of Japan (BoJ)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• July 31, 2024: Implied rate at 0.122%, with a probable hold, hold probability at 54.9%.
• September 20, 2024: Implied rate at 0.179%, with a 100% probability of a hike.
• October 31, 2024: Implied rate at 0.236%, with a 100% probability of a hike.
• December 19, 2024: Implied rate at 0.281%, with a 100% probability of a hike.

European Central Bank (ECB)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• September 12, 2024: Implied rate at 3.492%, with a probable cut, cut probability at 61.4%.
• October 17, 2024: Implied rate at 3.384%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• December 12, 2024: Implied rate at 3.235%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• January 30, 2025: Implied rate at 3.148%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• March 6, 2025: Implied rate at 2.967%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• April 17, 2025: Implied rate at 2.868%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• June 5, 2025: Implied rate at 2.748%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• July 24, 2025: Implied rate at 2.662%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• September 11, 2025: Implied rate at 2.556%, with a 100% probability of a cut.

Federal Reserve (Fed)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• July 31, 2024: Implied rate at 5.322%, with a probable hold, hold probability at 97.5%.
• September 18, 2024: Implied rate at 5.088%, with a 96.5% probability of a cut.
• November 7, 2024: Implied rate at 4.944%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• December 18, 2024: Implied rate at 4.719%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• January 29, 2025: Implied rate at 4.548%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• March 19, 2025: Implied rate at 4.35%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• April 30, 2025: Implied rate at 4.218%, with a 100% probability of a cut.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• August 6, 2024: Implied rate at 4.386%, with a probable hold, hold probability at 81.4%.
• September 24, 2024: Implied rate at 4.41%, with a 72.0% probability of a hold.
• November 5, 2024: Implied rate at 4.405%, with a 73.8% probability of a hold.
• December 10, 2024: Implied rate at 4.356%, with a 99.7% probability of a hold.
• February 18, 2025: Implied rate at 4.339%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• April 1, 2025: Implied rate at 4.227%, with a 54.8% probability of a hold.
• May 20, 2025: Implied rate at 4.163%, with a 70.7% probability of a cut.
• July 8, 2025: Implied rate at 4.105%, with a 93.2% probability of a cut.
• August 12, 2025: Implied rate at 4.051%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• September 30, 2025: Implied rate at 4.007%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• November 4, 2025: Implied rate at 3.965%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• December 9, 2025: Implied rate at 3.929%, with a 100% probability of a cut.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• August 14, 2024: Implied rate at 5.375%, with a probable hold, hold probability at 50.8%.
• October 9, 2024: Implied rate at 5.195%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• November 27, 2024: Implied rate at 4.815%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• February 19, 2025: Implied rate at 4.569%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• April 23, 2025: Implied rate at 4.307%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• May 28, 2025: Implied rate at 4.123%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• August 6, 2025: Implied rate at 4.121%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• September 24, 2025: Implied rate at 4.094%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• October 8, 2025: Implied rate at 3.954%, with a 100% probability of a cut.

Swiss National Bank (SNB)

Upcoming Meeting Dates and Predictions:

• September 26, 2024: Implied rate at 0.996%, with a probable hold, hold probability at 76.3%.
• December 12, 2024: Implied rate at 0.909%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• March 20, 2025: Implied rate at 0.837%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• June 19, 2025: Implied rate at 0.774%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• September 25, 2025: Implied rate at 0.65%, with a 100% probability of a cut.
• December 11, 2025: Implied rate at 0.595%, with a 100% probability of a cut.

The implied interest rate probabilities provide a fascinating glimpse into market expectations for central bank actions over the next 18 months. While some central banks, like the Federal Reserve and ECB, show a strong inclination towards rate cuts,

others like the Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank are expected to hold or cut rates less aggressively. These predictions underscore the dynamic nature of global monetary policy and its significant impact on financial markets and economic stability.