Weekly Economic Calendar Highlights

The week ahead is packed with significant economic data releases and central bank decisions, making it a pivotal period for global financial markets. Below is an overview of key events to watch for across major economies:

Monday, December 16, 2024

China:
- Industrial Production YoY (Nov): Expected at 5.5%, up from 5.3%.
- Retail Sales YoY (Nov): Consensus at 5.0%, improving from 4.8%.
  These figures will provide insight into the health of China’s economic recovery.
Eurozone:
- HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec P) and Services PMI (Dec P) are due, offering early indications of business activity. The prior readings stood at 45.2 and 49.5, respectively, remaining below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion.
UK:
- S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec P) and Services PMI (Dec P): With previous readings at 48.0 and 50.8, these will highlight the resilience of the UK economy amid ongoing pressures.

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

UK:
- Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY (Oct): Previous growth was 4.3%. This data is critical for gauging wage inflation trends.
Germany:
- IFO Business Climate (Dec): A key sentiment indicator for Europe’s largest economy.
US:
- Retail Sales Advance MoM (Nov): Forecast at 0.5%, compared to the prior 0.4%. A critical gauge of consumer spending, which is the backbone of the U.S. economy.
Canada:
- CPI Core – Median YoY% (Nov): Inflation trends will be in focus, with a prior reading of 2.5%.

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

UK:
- CPI YoY (Nov): Previous data showed inflation at 2.3%. Markets will closely watch this for signs of price pressures.
Eurozone:
- CPI YoY (Nov Final): The preliminary estimate was 2.0%, aligning with the European Central Bank’s inflation target.
US:
- FOMC Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the upper bound of its policy rate at 4.50%. Investors will scrutinize the accompanying statement for clues on future policy moves.
New Zealand:
- GDP SA QoQ (3Q): With the previous quarter showing a contraction of 0.2%, this release will be pivotal in assessing the economy’s trajectory.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Japan:
- BOJ Target Rate: The Bank of Japan is anticipated to hold its policy rate at 0.25%.
Sweden:
- Riksbank Policy Rate: Expected at 2.50%, a potential cut from 2.75%, as Sweden grapples with economic headwinds.
UK:
- Bank of England Rate Decision: The central bank is forecast to keep rates steady at 4.75%.
US:
- GDP Annualized QoQ (3Q Final): Expected to remain at 2.8%.
- Initial Jobless Claims: A weekly snapshot of the labor market’s health.
Japan:
- National CPI YoY (Nov): With a previous reading of 2.3%, inflation remains a key theme for the Bank of Japan.

Friday, December 20, 2024

UK:
- Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM (Nov): Previous data showed a decline of 0.7%.
US:
- Core PCE Price Index MoM (Nov): Forecast at 0.2%, down from 0.3%. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, this will hold significant market implications.

Market Implications

With a mix of inflation data, growth indicators, and central bank decisions, the week is set to drive substantial market movements. Investors should brace for heightened volatility, particularly around the Federal Reserve and Bank of England decisions, as well as critical CPI releases from the UK, Eurozone, and Japan.

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