As we move into the coming week, global financial markets brace for a series of pivotal economic events. From key legislative decisions to high-stakes central bank meetings, investors will be keeping a close watch on developments that could shape fiscal and monetary policy worldwide. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

Major Fiscal and Political Events

Two critical fiscal events are on the horizon. First, the US Congress must pass a continuing resolution to prevent a government shutdown. Second, the German Bundestag is set to vote on changes to the debt brake, which would allow additional defense spending and a €500 billion infrastructure investment fund. These votes will take place on March 18 and March 21, just before the new German government convenes on March 25.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue in Eastern Europe. Market watchers anticipate headlines regarding the potential for a truce between Ukraine and Russia, with US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin expected to engage in discussions.

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Key Economic Releases & Market Expectations

Monday, March 17

• 02:00 – China Industrial Production (February)
  Consensus: 5.3% YoY (previous: 6.2% YoY)
  HSBC analysts expect a slowdown in industrial production growth due to fewer working days. While manufacturing activity rebounded after the Lunar New Year, export orders remain under pressure from rising tariff risks.
• 12:30 – US Retail Sales Advance (February)
  Consensus: 0.6% (previous: -0.9%)
  Analysts suggest that consumer spending is slowing, partly due to adverse weather and a natural pullback from the strong Q4 spending. However, the sustainability of this decline remains in question.

Tuesday, March 18

• 10:00 – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey
  Consensus: 50.3 (previous: 26.0)
  With Germany pushing ahead with fiscal stimulus, investor sentiment is expected to show further improvement.
• 12:30 – Canada CPI/Core Median CPI (February)
  Consensus: 2.2% YoY (previous: 1.9%)/2.7% YoY (previous: 2.7%)
  BMO analysts highlight the impact of a mid-month tax reversal on consumer prices, while energy prices remain subdued.

Wednesday, March 19

• Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
  Consensus: Unchanged (previous: 0.50%)
  The BoJ is unlikely to change rates, though Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to provide guidance on future policy shifts.
• 18:00 – US Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision
  Consensus: Unchanged at 4.50%
  Analysts foresee no major changes in Fed policy, with attention focused on the Summary of Economic Projections.
• 21:30 – Brazil Selic Interest Rate Decision
  Consensus: 100bps Hike (previous: 13.25%)
  The Brazilian central bank is expected to raise rates, reflecting recent economic slowdowns and shifting market dynamics.

Thursday, March 20

• 00:30 – Australia Employment Report (February)
  Consensus: 30.0k jobs added (previous: 44.0k)
  A strong labor market continues to support the Australian economy, though seasonal volatility makes precise forecasting difficult.
• 08:30 – Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision
  Consensus: 25bps Cut (previous: 0.50%)
  The SNB is expected to make its final cut of this cycle, bringing rates to a terminal level of 0.25%.
• 12:00 – Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
  Consensus: Unchanged at 4.50%
  The BoE is likely to hold rates steady but may begin cutting as early as May, reflecting concerns over slowing growth.
• 23:30 – Japan National CPI (February)
  Consensus: 3.5% YoY (previous: 4.0%)
  Inflation is expected to cool, following a similar trend seen in Tokyo’s CPI figures.

Friday, March 21

• Fed’s Williams Speaks
  Markets will look for insights on the future of US monetary policy.

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With a packed schedule of economic data, fiscal decisions, and central bank meetings, the coming week will be crucial for global markets. Investors should prepare for potential volatility, particularly in forex and bond markets, as policymakers weigh inflation risks, growth slowdowns, and geopolitical uncertainties. Stay tuned for updates as these events unfold!