Nasdaq 100 futures trade near key technical levels ahead of the March FOMC meeting, with market participants weighing the Fed’s policy guidance against macro headwinds. Price action signals heightened volatility risk as traders position for potential rate shifts.

LEVELS TO WATCH:

• Resistance: 20,000 (Call Wall), 20,200 (0DTE Call Resistance)
• Support: 19,000 (0DTE Put Support), 18,800 (Major Put Wall)
• High-Vol Zone: 19,775 remains a key pivot, with risk skewed to the downside.

FED POLICY OUTLOOK:

• DOT PLOT: Market expects Fed to hold median projection at 1-2 cuts for 2025, down from 3 cuts in Dec. A shift to 1 cut or delay to 2026 likely pressures NQ toward 18,800 support.
• INFLATION: Core PCE at 2.7% annualized; any upward revision to 2025 inflation >2.5% may drive a breakdown below 19,000.
• QT POLICY: Signals on ending quantitative tightening (QT) could trigger a temporary relief rally toward 20,000, especially if paired with dovish guidance.

MARKET POSITIONING:

• NQ 19,775 PIVOT:
  • Break higher requires dovish Fed tilt (2 cuts retained, soft inflation rhetoric) or short-covering rally.
  • Hawkish shift (≤1 cut, Powell firm on inflation) could accelerate selling toward 18,800, amplified by negative dealer gamma (-$1.21M).

TRADING POST-FOMC:

• Rejection of 19,500-19,775 zone on high volume = Bearish bias toward lower support.
• Close above 20,000 invalidates negative gamma setup, opening room for upside.

Traders remain on edge as the Fed’s policy path collides with technical fragility. All eyes on Powell’s guidance as NQ volatility builds.