The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has sparked a notable shift in market dynamics, marking the first meaningful post-FOMC buying in the S&P 500 (SPX) since November 2023. With 24-hour excess buy flow reaching +$70 billion and a persistent trend without significant opposing forces, this development has caught the attention of market watchers and traders alike.

Market Internals Indicate Strong Buy Flow

Wednesday’s FOMC event triggered a significant response, with the Market Internal model confirming a meaningful buy-the-dip trend. Historically, November 2023’s FOMC was viewed as a “Fed pivot” moment, which ignited a bullish rally. A similar setup may now be unfolding, as strong buy flows suggest renewed investor confidence in the market.

Bullish Implications for SPX

One of the key takeaways from this event is the improvement in the Intraday Recovery Score. The last time a similar pattern occurred in November 2023, it led to a longer-term bullish shift by January 2024, with the model predicting a +20% upside over a year. While it is still too early to determine if March’s FOMC will have the same effect, historical data suggests that such buy flows tend to drive short-term bullish performance.

Potential Market Performance in the Coming Weeks

Looking at past instances, the SPX has historically shown an average gain of +7.0% within five weeks following a meaningful post-FOMC buy flow. The potential range of returns spans from +4% to +13%, excluding the actual FOMC day. If this pattern holds, investors may see further upside momentum in the coming weeks.

While market reactions to FOMC meetings can vary, the strong excess buy flow following the latest meeting is a positive signal. If history is any guide, this could pave the way for a short-term bullish rally, potentially mirroring the post-November 2023 trend. Investors will be closely watching whether the Intraday Recovery Score continues to improve, signaling further strength in the market.