Sentiment around Boeing remains divided. While long-term optimism still exists, many investors have adopted a tactical approach, trading within defined ranges amid headline volatility—particularly surrounding developments in China. The prevailing view among short-term traders is that Boeing isn’t a stock you “miss overnight”—meaning there’s unlikely to be a single catalyst that sends the stock soaring in one day. Instead, the focus is squarely on production metrics, particularly those tied to the 737 MAX.

Despite the surrounding noise, the real story with Boeing continues to center around one thing: MAX production rates.

In the near term, tariff impacts appear muted thanks to existing inventory buffers. Cost inflation does pose a challenge, but Boeing’s pricing escalators are expected to offset that over the long run. Encouragingly, recent updates from company management at an industry conference point to a continued optimistic stance on the business, especially around its commercial jet programs.

Key to this optimism is the progress on the 737 MAX. Updates on monthly build rates are likely to play a central role in how investors view Boeing’s ability to generate free cash flow in the back half of 2025 and beyond. Once Boeing ramps production to more than 38 MAX aircraft per month, inventory destocking should kick in—potentially acting as a tailwind to free cash flow in 2026 and 2027. Hitting that 38-per-month milestone sooner rather than later would accelerate this positive dynamic.

On the Defense side of the business, the outlook is also turning more constructive. Following a major win with the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program and with no new charges expected, this division may offer stability. That said, supply chain challenges remain a key risk to watch.

Looking specifically at this quarter, expectations are for a cash burn of around $3.5 billion—slightly better than consensus estimates of $3.9 billion. Boeing has already indicated that cash flow will be a few hundred million dollars better than previously forecast. It also affirmed that it has sufficient inventory to meet production targets of 38 aircraft per month for the MAX and 7 per month for the 787—both of which remain on schedule.

Supporting this narrative, flight data from Cirium tracked 27 MAX first flights in March. This is a lagging indicator but often precedes actual deliveries, suggesting that the production ramp is indeed happening. Projections now include a steady production rate of 31 MAX aircraft per month throughout the second quarter, up from a prior assumption of 29.

As Boeing prepares to report earnings, investors will be watching closely for any updates on production cadence, cash flow guidance, and defense program progress. While headline risks remain, particularly with geopolitical exposure, the underlying production and cash flow dynamics could pave the way for a more sustained recovery in the stock.