As market participants scan the charts for clues about the next move, the S&P 500 futures (SPX) are sending a clear message: the technical picture remains precarious. After a brief attempt to rally, the index has reversed decisively at a key negative trend line—an area that has consistently served as resistance during this correction phase. This rejection is not just symbolic; it’s a reaffirmation that bearish momentum is still very much alive.

One of the more ominous signals in play is the death cross, where the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average. This pattern, while not always immediately predictive, is a reflection of sustained downside pressure and deteriorating intermediate-term momentum. The fact that SPX futures nearly kissed the 50-day before backing off reinforces the gravity of this resistance level. Buyers showed up, but not with enough conviction to carry the market through.

At the heart of the near-term setup is the 5500 level in S&P futures. This isn’t just a round number or psychological marker—it’s a technical fulcrum. Holding this level is crucial for the bulls to maintain any semblance of control. A daily close below 5500 could be the trigger for a more dynamic leg lower. In such a scenario, downside could accelerate quickly as key stops are triggered and short momentum strategies kick in.

While volatility has calmed slightly from recent peaks, this pause feels more like the eye of the storm than a resolution. Until SPX can decisively reclaim both the 50-day moving average and break above the downward trend line, every bounce risks being just another opportunity for bears to reload.

In short, the market is standing on a knife’s edge. The confluence of technical rejection at resistance, an active death cross, and a must-hold support level sets the stage for a potentially volatile period ahead. Traders would be wise to stay alert—this chart is far from resolved.