Macro & Policy:
The EU is pivoting its trade stance, sharpening focus on critical sectors in an effort to sidestep potential US tariffs. Sources suggest Brussels is readying strategic offers to soften Washington’s protectionist edges, with whispers of more tailored sector-based deals in the pipeline. On the other side of the Atlantic, White House NEC’s Hassett hinted at multiple trade agreements being finalized—India named among those close to the finish line. Tariffs for compliant nations may fall below 10%.

Meanwhile, ECB hawk Holzmann is advocating for a pause in rate cuts until September, citing escalating trade risks. Hungary held its policy rate steady at 6.50% as expected.

Equities:
Risk appetite reignited. Indices hovered at session highs with NQ +1.7%, ES +1.4%, RTY +1.6%. Mega-cap tech led the charge; $NVDA +2.8% on reports of a China-targeted AI chip. $TSLA +2% defied macro headwinds despite a 49% plunge in European auto sales YoY. Notably, EV sales still rose 27.8%, underscoring a structural shift.

Deal Flow:
Salesforce ($CRM) is closing in on a $8B deal for Informatica ($INFA) at $25/share, per WSJ. $INFA +6% on the tape. NEC’s Hassett expects more deals this week, reinforcing the M&A momentum.

Earnings:
AutoZone ($AZO) topped top-line estimates with Q3 rev $4.5B (est $4.41B); domestic comp sales jumped +5% vs est +2.43%, while international lagged at -9.2%.
PDD Holdings ($PDD) cratered -17% after missing big: Adj EPS 11.41 Yuan (est 19.11), Rev 95.67B Yuan (est 101.6B).

FX & Rates:
USD staged a rebound, attempting to repair recent damage. JPY came under pressure as domestic yields pulled back. Bonds were well-bid globally—MOF sources buoying sentiment, with Gilts outperforming on chatter around the UK shifting to shorter-term issuance to reduce interest obligations.

India’s 10Y rally continues—yield now 6.25%, only 179bps over Treasuries, richest spread since 2004. The bull run has sliced over 100bps since Oct ’23, and momentum persists.

Commodities:
Crude prices held steady in front of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Metals, both precious and base, softened. Market appears to be recalibrating amid mixed global demand signals and a defensive macro stance from policymakers.

Data Check:

• US Durable Goods: -6.3% (est -7.8%) in Apr P; Core nondefense cap goods orders ex-air: -1.3% (est -0.1%)
• CBI UK Retail Sales: -27 in May (prev -8); distribution sales at -43 (prev -26)
• US Home Prices cooled across the board:
  • S&P CoreLogic 20-City Mar MoM: -0.12% (est +0.2%)
  • FHFA HPI Mar: -0.1% (est +0.1%)

Geopolitical Watch:
South Korea’s conservative presidential candidate Kim Moon-Soo raised the stakes, saying nuclear armament could be considered under the US alliance—market reaction muted, but rhetoric sharpens.

Chart Watch:
SPX riding a steep trend channel since April lows. The bounce off the lower bound and 21DMA held firm—technical support at 5800, resistance eyed at 6000.

Expectations now pivot to tomorrow’s macro slate. Watch for follow-through in bonds and any policy jawboning as headlines continue to dictate direction.