The coming week begins with a historic milestone in Japan and a touch of uncertainty across global markets. As the world digests a change in political leadership and shifting energy dynamics, attention turns to the impact of a U.S. government shutdown and how it may cloud the flow of key economic data.

A Historic Moment in Japan

Japan has entered new political territory with the election of its first-ever female leader at the helm of the ruling party. This marks a defining moment for the country and sets the stage for its first female prime minister — a symbolic and potentially transformative step for Japanese politics.

Oil Markets Steady After OPEC+ Decision

Energy markets found some relief over the weekend after OPEC+ members opted for only a modest production increase. The measured move helped calm investor concerns of a sharper output rise and signaled the group’s cautious approach to balancing supply with fragile global demand.

U.S. Data Silence Amid Government Shutdown

The new week also begins under the cloud of a U.S. government shutdown, which has entered its first full week. The disruption means a pause on the usual flow of key data — from employment and inflation to GDP and trade figures — leaving analysts and investors temporarily flying blind.

Without these vital indicators, market sentiment is likely to hinge on central bank communication and global data releases from Europe, Asia, and Oceania.

Central Banks in Focus

Monetary policy watchers will be paying close attention to two key publications: the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, and the European Central Bank’s accounts from its own September session. Both will offer clues about the next moves for rates amid ongoing concerns over slowing growth and sticky inflation.

Key Economic Data to Watch

Germany (Tuesday):
Industrial orders are expected to rebound in August, reversing the prior month’s decline. A combination of base effects, rising capacity utilization, and steady demand could deliver a solid uptick, with one large defense contract reportedly providing an extra boost.

Japan (Tuesday):
Wage growth data will show whether momentum from this year’s strong spring labor negotiations is continuing. Despite a tight labor market, concerns linger that global trade tensions could weigh on corporate profits — and, by extension, on pay raises.

New Zealand (Wednesday):
Markets are widely expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to ease policy again, with a rate cut of at least 25 basis points on the table. Signs of spare capacity in the economy and subdued inflation pressures have strengthened the case for a more expansionary stance.

Sweden (Wednesday):
Preliminary inflation figures are due, though the release may have less market impact following last week’s rate cut. Analysts anticipate a slight cooling in consumer prices, driven by seasonal declines in travel and rental costs.

Norway (Friday):
Inflation data will be in focus as well, with expectations for steady price growth. Seasonal effects and moderate trends in rents and food prices could help keep readings close to central bank forecasts.

Canada (Friday):
The labor market update is expected to show a modest rebound after recent job losses. Service-sector hiring should lead the gains, though the unemployment rate may tick slightly higher.

Policy Makers on the Mic

A busy roster of central bank speakers throughout the week — including officials from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England — will provide markets with no shortage of commentary to dissect. With data disruptions limiting visibility, every hint or phrase from policymakers will carry extra weight.

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The week ahead is shaped as much by what we won’t see — key U.S. data — as by what we will: central bank insights, inflation snapshots, and a new chapter in Japan’s political story. Markets will be searching for direction amid muted signals, testing how resilient confidence can be in the absence of clarity.