The US midterm elections in October 2026 are set to be a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape. With the presidential election just two years away, the outcome of these elections will have significant implications for the future of American politics. However, there is little consensus among panelists at the Washington Economic Festival on the likely outcome of the midterms.

Since World War II, the party holding the White House has lost seats in the midterm elections except for 1998 and 2002, when the president’s approval ratings were above 60%. Given President Trump’s current approval ratings, which are below 50%, it is likely that this trend will continue. Two of the three panelists believe that the Democrats will retake control of the House of Representatives, while there is little expectation that they will win the Senate.

If the Democrats do manage to retake the House, they will have the power to block President Trump’s agenda. However, the party faces an uphill battle, as they have more vulnerable seats than the Republicans and a Supreme Court decision could potentially give the Republicans more seats. The governor races in New Jersey and Virginia later this year may provide additional insight into the likely outcome of the midterms.

Working against the Republicans is President Trump’s lower approval rating on the economy compared to his overall approval rating, which was a first since 2015. This could potentially impact the party’s performance in the midterms.

Overall, the US midterm elections in October 2026 are set to be a critical next step in the country’s political journey. With the presidential election just around the corner, the outcome of these elections will have significant implications for the future of American politics. Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as the midterms approach.