As we approach the end of the year, economic uncertainty continues to fog the road ahead. Despite a 73% probability of a cut, the US Federal Reserve has yet to make a decision on interest rates. The ongoing government shutdown has further complicated matters by delaying key data releases, including the highly anticipated jobs report. In this environment, it’s important to slow down and take a closer look at the factors at play.

HSBC’s recent expectation of a 25bp cut in December provides some support for EUR-USD into year-end. This move is likely driven by the Fed’s desire to maintain accommodative policy and support the economy during these uncertain times. However, it’s important to remember that the Fed is not the only game in town. Other central banks, such as the European Central Bank, are also active in their own ways, and their actions could have a significant impact on currency markets.

As we navigate this fog of economic uncertainty, it’s crucial to stay informed and adaptable. Keep an eye on key data releases and central bank decisions, and be prepared to adjust your strategies as needed. By slowing down and taking a closer look at the factors at play, you can make more informed trading decisions and position yourself for success in these challenging times.