As NVIDIA (NVDA) prepares to release its earnings report, the company finds itself in a peculiar position. Despite strong Asia checks and ongoing optimism, the stock has sharply de-rated, putting it under heavy pressure heading into the earnings announcement. According to JPM’s tech trader Josh Meyers, investors are broadly positioned for a beat/raise, but concerns over circular financing, NVDA’s growing index weight, potential “share-donor” dynamics, and uncertainty around capital allocation are weighing on sentiment. This has created a conflicted setup with the “weight of the world” on NVDA.

The implied move for the earnings report is 6.5%, with our survey pointing to a revenue beat of $2.3 billion this quarter and $1.5 billion for the guide, implying extraordinary sequential growth. However, the expectations for FY26-28 remain high, which could lead to further upside potential.

The chart highlights the conflicting expectations, with the 100-day moving average (blue) and 200-day moving average (orange) providing a clear line in the sand for investors. A break above these levels could signal a continuation of the upward trend, while a failure to do so could lead to a decline in the stock price.

NVDA’s earnings report is set to be a high-stakes conflict of expectations. While investors are optimistic about the company’s growth prospects, concerns over valuation and sentiment could lead to a volatile trading environment. The outcome will depend on how well NVIDIA can navigate these challenges and deliver a strong earnings report that meets or exceeds expectations.