In a bizarre turn of events, Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, has withheld payouts on Venezuela invasion bets. Maduro’s capture did not meet the platform’s invasion criteria, leaving bettors empty-handed. But what exactly are these criteria, and how do they impact your chances of winning? In this blog post, we delve into the fine print of invasion bets to uncover the answers.

Polymarket’s invasion criteria are a crucial aspect of their betting platform. According to their website, the platform uses a combination of news sources and on-chain data to determine whether an event has occurred. The criteria for invasion bets are as follows:

Invasion must be confirmed by at least two independent news sources**: Polymarket requires confirmation from multiple sources to ensure that the event is legitimate and not just a rumor or speculation.

Event must be confirmed on-chain**: The platform uses blockchain technology to verify the authenticity of events. This means that the event must be recorded on the blockchain for it to be considered valid.

Event must meet invasion criteria**: Polymarket has a set of criteria that an event must meet in order to be considered an invasion. These criteria include things like the scale of the event, the level of violence involved, and the impact on the affected area.

So why did Maduro’s capture fail to meet Polymarket’s invasion criteria? According to the platform, the capture did not involve a large enough scale of violence or have a significant impact on the affected area. While Maduro’s capture was certainly a major event in Venezuela, it did not meet the platform’s criteria for an invasion.

Polymarket’s criteria for invasion bets have significant implications for bettors. It means that even if an event occurs, there is no guarantee that a payout will be made if it does not meet the platform’s criteria. This can be frustrating for bettors who may have placed their trust in the platform and its criteria.