Goldman Sachs’ mid-day wrap provides a comprehensive analysis of the market’s performance, highlighting key themes and trends. Today’s wrap focuses on the defensive nature of the market following global weakness, with the Russell 1000 (RTY) outperforming the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (NDX). The price action in many categories is reverting today, with significant moves seen in Data Centers (-392bps), AI Software (-300bps), Housing Exposure (+380bps), and Defense (+475bps).

AAPL is a standout performer, on pace to close seven consecutive days in the red, with the stock breaking below its 100-day moving average for the first time since August. The mixed debates surrounding Apple’s story trends, memory pricing, geopolitical concerns, and AI positioning are contributing to the ongoing volatility in the mega-cap Tech sector. Meanwhile, GOOGL is continuing its upward trajectory, adding 100bps today.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFP) employment report is in focus tomorrow morning, with Goldman estimating a headline print of 70k jobs created, which is in line with street consensus. The market is currently pricing in two full cuts this year, and any significant surprise in either direction could impact the first 25bps cut (either sooner or later) from current consensus of April 29th. Goldman believes that an inline to slightly better outcome is the best-case scenario for tomorrow, with a sweet spot for stocks ranging from 70k to 100k jobs created. A print below 50k would be below the present break-even rate for the US economy and could spook investors on growth concerns, while a print above 125k could nudge the first cut from April back to June.

In terms of liquidity, S&P volumes are normalizing to +8% vs the 20dma, with 375 names in the green. The top of book liquidity is $10mm on the touch, representing a +13% increase vs the 20dma.

Goldman’s flows indicate that they are currently a 4 out of 10 in terms of overall activity levels and 3% to buy across the floor. LOs (long only) are skewed better to buy today, with demand most pronounced in information technology, industrials, and consumer staples versus supply in the same categories.