The debate surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the labor market and economy has long been a topic of interest and concern. Recently, a hypothetical scenario analysis by Citrini Research has sparked renewed discussion, with the author envisioning a future where AI’s success could destabilize the economy. However, Michael Bloch has presented a detailed rebuttal, challenging the doomsday framing and arguing that the upside of AI is being underestimated.

Citrini’s scenario analysis, dubbed “Macro Memo June 2028,” presents a disruptive future where AI’s success leads to a demand shock that could destabilize the labor market and broader economy. The author sketches a picture of a world where AI has become so advanced that it replaces human workers at an alarming rate, leading to widespread unemployment and social unrest. While the scenario is certainly thought-provoking, Bloch’s rebuttal highlights several key points that challenge the doomsday framing of Citrini’s analysis.

Firstly, Bloch argues that AI-driven upside is being underestimated. He notes that while AI may displace certain jobs, it will also create new ones, such as those in data science, machine learning engineering, and AI research. By focusing solely on the potential job displacement caused by AI, Citrini’s analysis neglects the broader economic benefits of increased productivity and innovation that AI can bring about.

Secondly, Bloch challenges the idea that AI will lead to a sudden and dramatic demand shock. He notes that while AI may disrupt certain industries and job categories, it is unlikely to have a catastrophic impact on the entire economy. Instead, he suggests that AI will likely lead to a gradual shift in the labor market, with some jobs becoming obsolete while new ones emerge.

Finally, Bloch argues that the idea of “peak AI infrastructure spend” is premature. He notes that while there may be a temporary slowdown in AI investment due to regulatory or ethical concerns, the long-term trend is likely to be one of continued growth and innovation. As AI technologies continue to advance and become more integrated into various industries, the demand for skilled professionals in the field will only increase.