The US-Iran conflict has reached a critical crossroads, with decisions on the contours of the Middle East conflict still up in the air. Last night’s speech by President Trump gave us some valuable insights into his thinking, including the likelihood of military attacks and the potential use of ground troops.

Firstly, Trump reiterated his threat to target Iranian infrastructure if they fail to comply with the Apr 6 deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He also mentioned that all nuclear capabilities are destroyed but may be under rubble with nuclear dust, suggesting that US military satellites will continue to monitor bombed sites and potentially return should Iran look to excavate. This development removes some downside risk of a US-led ground incursion to remove enriched uranium, which would have required significantly more military power and soldiers and a time line taking the conflict into 26H2 or beyond.

In terms of market intelligence, Trump’s views on the Iranian nuclear threat have shifted, removing a longer-term ground incursion to recover uranium as an option. If the next wave of attacks includes ground troops, it is expected to conclude by the end of April. However, it remains unclear whether the US will temporarily open the Strait of Hormuz or hold it until an international coalition appears.

Additionally, there is a UAE emergency request for military force from the UN today, which could provide further insight into the ongoing conflict. The flagging of US attacks means that Iran is likely to counterattack, and the market will be closely watching developments in the coming days.