Markets are starting the week on a cautious footing as investors digest new developments on trade talks and gear up for a busy data and earnings schedule.

USTR Prepares Framework for Rolling Trade Negotiations

On Friday, it was reported by The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. Trade Representative’s office has prepared a framework for staggered, reciprocal trade negotiations. The plan aims to streamline talks with 18 partners over the next two months, working toward the U.S.’s July 8th deadline. This rolling approach is designed to maintain momentum and flexibility across multiple negotiations simultaneously.

Positive Signals in U.S.-China Tariff Discussions

In other trade news, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent shared that he had a positive interaction with his Chinese counterpart during meetings in Washington last week. According to ABC News, Bessent believes China will recognize that current U.S. tariff levels are unsustainable and expressed optimism about reaching an agreement. Meanwhile, the U.S. Agriculture Secretary noted that daily conversations are ongoing with China regarding tariffs — an encouraging sign that both sides are actively seeking solutions.

Market Overview

European equity indices are modestly firmer in early trading, though U.S. futures are slightly in the red. The dollar is seeing choppy action heading into month-end, with GBP finding some bid support, while the Swiss franc lags behind its peers.

In the fixed income space, U.S. Treasuries have started the week relatively contained, whereas European government bonds (EGBs) are underperforming slightly ahead of upcoming supply.

Commodity markets are quieter: crude oil prices are underwhelming despite the backdrop of U.S.-Iran talks, and gold continues to pull back after recent strength.

What’s Ahead

Looking forward, today’s calendar features several important events:

• Data: U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
• Central Banks: Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey
• Speakers: ECB’s Olli Rehn and Luis de Guindos
• Supply: Issuance from the European Union
• Earnings: Highlights include Domino’s Pizza, Roper Technologies, and NXP Semiconductors

With geopolitical tensions, central bank commentary, and corporate earnings all on deck, investors should brace for a potentially eventful week.