The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) has been on a tear this year, currently sitting at a whopping +14% YTD. While past performance is not always indicative of future returns, it’s interesting to take a closer look at the historical data to see how this compares to other years when the market has experienced similar growth. As Goldman Sachs’ Garrett Lewis points out, there have been only four instances in the last 25 years where the SPX was up this much at this point in the calendar year. These instances include 2024, which saw a +20.3% gain (ending the year at +24%), 2021, which gained +17.7% (ending the year at +28.8%), 2019, which gained +17.1% (ending the year at +28.7%), and 2013, which gained +15.9% (ending the year at +26.4%).

It’s worth noting that these instances are relatively rare, occurring only about 4% of the time in the last 25 years. This suggests that the current market conditions may be particularly favorable for investors, but it’s important to keep in mind that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As Garrett Lewis notes, “avg that return and you’re talking SPX 7300+.” While this is certainly an impressive gain, it’s important to approach the market with a long-term perspective and to be prepared for potential volatility along the way.

While the current growth of the SPX is certainly impressive, it’s important to keep in mind that past performance is not always indicative of future returns. As investors, we must be vigilant and prepared for any market conditions that may arise.