The future of the Federal Reserve is uncertain as Chair Jerome Powell prepares to leave his position as governor in May. According to former New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley, much will depend on Powell’s perception of the threat to the Fed’s independence. The outcome of the Lisa Cook case at the Supreme Court may also play a role in Powell’s decision.

Dudley believes that Powell will stay at the Fed if he feels it will make a difference to the Fed’s independence, but he may also be considering who will take over as Chair. Waller’s policy-making will always have the best interests of the US economy in mind, according to Dudley, but he is unsure about the motivations of other potential candidates such as Hassett or Warsh.

Proximity to the president also matters, according to Dudley, who notes that Bernanke had been an influential adviser to Obama before his appointment as Fed Chair. With the current delay in unveiling the new chair, Miran may stay in his temporary role into the spring, potentially until February or March.

Overall, the future of the Federal Reserve is uncertain, and only time will tell if Powell will stay or go.