As investors, we often focus on fundamental analysis and ignore the impact of momentum and multiple factors on market movements. However, today’s activity levels remind us that these factors can have a significant influence on the market’s performance. Our floor showed a remarkable +442bps buy vs a 30-day average of -8bps, with asset managers net buying $700 million driven by demand in macro, financials, and materials, while hedge funds were net sellers due to supply in discretionary products. The derivatives market also saw significant activity, with unloved pockets of the market rallying despite geopolitical concerns being shrugged off. The VIX expiry led to dealer gamma roll-off, allowing for more market movement. Our analysis suggests that maximum dealer long gamma positioning is currently at -2% from here. Volumes were bid in SPX and NDX today, particularly in the front end of the curve, with skew relaxing significantly, now sitting at the 56th percentile on a 1-year lookback compared to the 99th percentile at the start of the conflict. Additionally, we observed large MOCs of $2.35 to buy as CTAs continued their US equity purchases. Flowwise, we saw buyers of vol, with macros coming in to chase the vol rally. Looking ahead, jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30am ET will provide insight into the market’s potential move through the day. The SPX implied move through tomorrow is 0.53%. (Source: Gail Hafif)