In today’s Goldman mid-day wrap, the market is oscillating around unchanged, trading within a 39 basis point range. The S&P 500 looks to extend its winning streak to 8 straight sessions, the longest of the year if it closes in the green. Thematic rotations are in full effect, with the Software vs Semis basket up +7.45%, its largest move higher in over a year, following bullish commentary from Jensen at the Computex conference. However, Pete Callahan notes that the overall move can be attributed to “more of the same,” as the group is now up +40% from mid-April lows. LO demand for Software on the desk is observed to be getting funded by supply in Megacap Internet/Semis.

The continued violent moves in software are weighing on the Momentum pair, with the basket down more than -5.5% and lower for the third straight session, mostly driven by the squeeze in the short momentum leg which is higher for the fourth straight day. In addition, Exchanges are lower for the second straight session (CBOE -6%, CME -2.5%, ICE -1.7%). A crowded long sector gets a “terminal growth overhang,” according to the CFTC, which has announced that it will assess additional product releases on a case-by-case basis, creating an overhang that may persist.

Interestingly, ETFs are representing only 24% of the tape, even with some of the headlines today. This marks 37 consecutive sessions where ETFs have accounted for less than 29% of the tape. For context, ETFs averaged 37% per day in March. Volumes are favoring micro versus macro lately, according to Chris Lucas (h/t).

Overall activity levels are down +46% vs. the trailing two weeks, running ahead of broader market volumes which are up +17% vs. the 10dma. Our floor tilts +5% better to buy with both HFs and LOs tilted that way. HFs are +4% better to buy.