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Understanding the Aggressive Bid in VIX: A Closer Look
As traders and investors monitor market movements, they often turn to volatility indices such as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to gauge the level of risk and uncertainty. Recently, there has been an interesting development in the VIX futures market that warrants closer examination: a rather aggressive bid in VIX. To better understand this phenomenon,…
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The Cook v. Trump Case: A Test of Central Bank Independence
The upcoming Supreme Court hearing in the case of Trump vs. Cook has significant implications for the Federal Reserve’s independence and the ability of its governors to serve without fear of political interference. The case centers around allegations of mortgage fraud leveled against Fed Governor Lisa Cook by FHFA Director William Pulte, which could potentially…
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Rotation Back into Speculative Growth: US Thematic Basket Movers
As the S&P 500 inches higher by 10 basis points, there’s a notable rotation back into speculative growth stocks. This move is particularly evident in our Long/Short Quality factor, which has reached new lows. Meanwhile, gold miners and rate cut winners have faded intraday after President Trump hinted he may no longer consider nominating (dovish)…
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The Semiconductor Sector’s Soaring Growth: A New Era of Innovation?
The semiconductor sector has long been a driving force in the technology industry, powering everything from smartphones to supercomputers. However, recent trends suggest that this critical industry is experiencing unprecedented growth, with implications for both investors and the broader tech landscape. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the reasons behind this surge in semiconductor…
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Excess Flows and Retail Buying: A Sign of Stability in US Equity Markets?
As the US equity market continues to experience volatility, a recent observation by UBS’s Rebecca Cheong has caught our attention. According to Cheong, excess flow showed no alarm on Thursday morning, with orderly selling totaling $26 billion. What’s more interesting is that retail buying was the most active during this time, suggesting a level of…
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Silver’s Latest Price Action: A Sign of Strength or Weakness?
Silver has been on a tear since the start of the year, with prices surging over 20% in just a few short months. However, recent price action has raised some concerns among traders and analysts alike. In this blog post, we’ll take a closer look at the latest silver price action and try to decipher…
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Market Moves Higher on Tech Gains; Semis in Demand, Banks Reverse Weakness
The market is moving higher today, driven by gains in the Technology sector following strong results from TSM overnight. The broader AI/Semi trade is also seeing strength, with our CapEx Beneficiaries basket (GSXUCAPX) up 3.1%. Elements of the broadening out trade are still present, with RTY>NDX>SPX continuing to hold. Semis are in demand today, with…
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The Extreme Volumes of SLV: A Sign of Market Mania or a New Normal?
As the stock market continues to melt up, the volumes of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (SLV) have been extreme, leaving many investors wondering if everyone is already in on the rally. The latest bar chart of SLV’s price action suggests that the bullish momentum may be picking up steam, but there are several factors…
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US Swap Spreads Widen and Steepen: A Sign of Things to Come?
As the US yield curve continues its downward trajectory, swap spreads are experiencing a similar trend – widening and steepening. According to UBS Securities and Treasury (UBS S&T), there are several factors contributing to this movement, including a lack of resistance in the 5-year 30-year cash market around the 106 level and duration struggling to…
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Uncertainty in US Equity Markets Leads to Risk Off Sentiment
Uncertainty in the US equity market has led to a risk off sentiment, with investors becoming cautious and taking profits. According to UBS’s high touch flows, hedge funds are net buying, while long only investors are marginally better for sale. The derivatives desk is seeing demand for VIX upside and tactical very short dated SPY…
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