IBAFIN

Blog

ibafin.com/

Profile

ibafin.com/author/wqdescasd/

Homepage

ibafin.com

  • Goldilocks and the December Rate Cut: A Technical Analysis

    In today’s market wrap, we saw a mix of positive and negative signals that could impact the probability of a December rate cut. On one hand, the headline number was firmer than expected, but on the other hand, the unemployment rate rose and AHE (Personal Income and Outlays) came in lower than expected. According to…

  • The Fluid Situation in Japan: A Flight to Safety or a Loss of Faith?

    Japan has been experiencing a unique and fluid situation in recent times, with the yen and long-end JGBs collapsing together by over 5% even as global bonds rally. This decoupling from fair value raises questions about the stability of Japan’s economy and the potential for capital flight. In this blog post, we will delve into…

  • Understanding the Inverted Probability Curve: A Key to Successful Trading

    The stock market is a dynamic and unpredictable entity, and understanding its patterns and trends is crucial for successful trading. One such pattern that has gained attention recently is the inverted probability curve, particularly when comparing December to January prices. This phenomenon has significant implications for investors and traders alike, and in this blog post,…

  • Understanding Equities CTA Flows: A Weekly and Monthly Analysis

    This week’s equities CTA flows provide valuable insights into the current market dynamics. On a flat tape, sellers dominated with $39.01 billion in volume, including $15.78 billion coming from outside the US. Meanwhile, on an up tape, buyers outnumbered sellers by a margin of $21.35 billion to $9.33 billion, with $1.44 billion flowing into the…

  • NVDA Earnings: A Shift in Patterns?

    As NVIDIA (NVDA) prepares to release its latest earnings report, an interesting pattern has emerged. Over the past eleven releases since ChatGPT launched, the company’s massive 10x rally hasn’t come from earnings-day pops. Instead, day-after and week-after moves have typically lagged, while the month before earnings has usually been the strong stretch. However, this quarter…

  • NVDA Earnings Setup: A High-Stakes Conflict of Expectations

    As NVIDIA (NVDA) prepares to release its earnings report, the company finds itself in a peculiar position. Despite strong Asia checks and ongoing optimism, the stock has sharply de-rated, putting it under heavy pressure heading into the earnings announcement. According to JPM’s tech trader Josh Meyers, investors are broadly positioned for a beat/raise, but concerns…

  • Goldman Week Wrap: Market Shrugs Off Hawkish Fed and Rotational Flow

    This week on Wall Street, Goldman’s market wrap highlighted the intriguing dynamics at play despite the Fed’s hawkish stance. Despite a 53% probability of a rate cut on December 10th compared to a 98% probability in late October, the market remained resilient. The firm observed constructive flow picture on their desk, with an uptick in…

  • Market Momentum Shifts into High Gear: Better to Buy?

    The market has been experiencing a relief rally in the past few days, with the Momentum indicator stabilizing after a three-day losing streak. This is the first time since September that we’ve seen such a performance, and it’s worth taking note of. Early activity was largely driven by ETF price action, which makes up 37%…

  • Mid-Day Market Color: Rotation Continues as Momentum Stabilizes

    The market is experiencing a shift in activity, with the rotation continuing as momentum stabilizes. Yesterday’s performance was the second worst of the year for the GSPRHIMO basket, but early activity today was driven by ETF price action and notable covering bid from hedge funds. The lack of liquidity is exacerbating the move higher, with…

  • Unveiling the Secrets of Rubner’s Latest Discovery: A Comprehensive Analysis

    Rubner’s latest discovery has sparked excitement in the scientific community, and rightly so. The image he shared on Twitter, which shows a mysterious object with an eerie glow, has left many wondering what it could be. While the origins of this enigmatic object are still unknown, we can analyze its visual elements to make some…