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The Art of Diplomacy: How Putin’s Call for Talks Could Lead to a Peaceful Resolution in Ukraine
As the conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, Russian President Vladimir Putin has surprised many by calling for talks to end the war. While some may see this as a sign of weakness, it could actually be a strategic move to bring about a peaceful resolution to the crisis. In this blog post, we’ll explore…
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The Unpredictable Nature of Cryptocurrency Market Movements
The cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability and volatility. No one can accurately predict the movements of these digital assets, not even the so-called “gurus” in the industry. This is evident from the recent December events, where a 25% probability turned into an 80% probability, leaving only a small portion for the gurus to…
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Goldilocks and the December Rate Cut: A Technical Analysis
In today’s market wrap, we saw a mix of positive and negative signals that could impact the probability of a December rate cut. On one hand, the headline number was firmer than expected, but on the other hand, the unemployment rate rose and AHE (Personal Income and Outlays) came in lower than expected. According to…
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The Fluid Situation in Japan: A Flight to Safety or a Loss of Faith?
Japan has been experiencing a unique and fluid situation in recent times, with the yen and long-end JGBs collapsing together by over 5% even as global bonds rally. This decoupling from fair value raises questions about the stability of Japan’s economy and the potential for capital flight. In this blog post, we will delve into…
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Understanding the Inverted Probability Curve: A Key to Successful Trading
The stock market is a dynamic and unpredictable entity, and understanding its patterns and trends is crucial for successful trading. One such pattern that has gained attention recently is the inverted probability curve, particularly when comparing December to January prices. This phenomenon has significant implications for investors and traders alike, and in this blog post,…
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Understanding Equities CTA Flows: A Weekly and Monthly Analysis
This week’s equities CTA flows provide valuable insights into the current market dynamics. On a flat tape, sellers dominated with $39.01 billion in volume, including $15.78 billion coming from outside the US. Meanwhile, on an up tape, buyers outnumbered sellers by a margin of $21.35 billion to $9.33 billion, with $1.44 billion flowing into the…
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NVDA Earnings: A Shift in Patterns?
As NVIDIA (NVDA) prepares to release its latest earnings report, an interesting pattern has emerged. Over the past eleven releases since ChatGPT launched, the company’s massive 10x rally hasn’t come from earnings-day pops. Instead, day-after and week-after moves have typically lagged, while the month before earnings has usually been the strong stretch. However, this quarter…
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NVDA Earnings Setup: A High-Stakes Conflict of Expectations
As NVIDIA (NVDA) prepares to release its earnings report, the company finds itself in a peculiar position. Despite strong Asia checks and ongoing optimism, the stock has sharply de-rated, putting it under heavy pressure heading into the earnings announcement. According to JPM’s tech trader Josh Meyers, investors are broadly positioned for a beat/raise, but concerns…
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Goldman Week Wrap: Market Shrugs Off Hawkish Fed and Rotational Flow
This week on Wall Street, Goldman’s market wrap highlighted the intriguing dynamics at play despite the Fed’s hawkish stance. Despite a 53% probability of a rate cut on December 10th compared to a 98% probability in late October, the market remained resilient. The firm observed constructive flow picture on their desk, with an uptick in…
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Market Momentum Shifts into High Gear: Better to Buy?
The market has been experiencing a relief rally in the past few days, with the Momentum indicator stabilizing after a three-day losing streak. This is the first time since September that we’ve seen such a performance, and it’s worth taking note of. Early activity was largely driven by ETF price action, which makes up 37%…
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