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  • Geopolitical Tensions Roil Global Markets and Economy

    As the world watches the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran unfold, markets and economies are feeling the turbulence. In this weekend news recap, we’ll dive into the latest developments and their potential impacts on various sectors. Firstly, traders are bracing for a volatile opening on Monday as the war between the US and…

  • The Rise of 0DTE Options Trading: A New Era in Investing?

    As the world grapples with the challenges of the ongoing pandemic and geopolitical tensions, investors are increasingly turning to options trading as a means of managing risk and capitalizing on market opportunities. One trend that has emerged in recent months is the growing popularity of options contracts with zero days to expiration (0DTE). In this…

  • The First Denial: Understanding the Fed’s Stance on Rate Hikes

    The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, has recently made headlines for its stance on interest rate hikes. In a recent speech, Vice Chair Richard Clarida stated that there is no need to consider raising rates at this time. This comment marks the first denial of rate hike speculation, signaling a shift in the…

  • Rising Demand for Dollars Drives Cross Currency Basis Lower: UBS

    The ongoing tensions between the Middle East and US have led to a strong demand for dollars, which has driven down cross-currency basis rates. According to UBS, the JPYUSD cross-currency basis dropped 1bp earlier Thursday and another 1bp during the London session. The EURUSD basis is also down 1bp along the curve, while the GBPUSD…

  • Will This Time Be Different? Geopolitical Tensions and Market Resilience

    The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has been causing significant concern for global markets. However, despite the growing tension, the price action in the market is following a familiar pattern that has been seen in US equities during previous geopolitical shocks. While it may be tempting to assume that this time will…

  • The Devastating Impact of Supply Shocks on Global Demand: A Lesson from History

    As JPMorgan recently highlighted, supply shocks have a profound effect not just on the supply side of the market but also on demand. History has shown us that four out of the last five oil shocks since the 1970s led to recessions. Today, we are facing an extreme situation with shut-ins surging to unprecedented levels.…

  • The Fed Probabilities Game: Will the Market’s Spread Between OIS and Fed Rate Narrow by December 2026?

    The Federal Reserve has been signaling a possible interest rate hike in the near future, leading to increased speculation among market participants. In this blog post, we will explore the current state of the Fed probabilities game and examine the potential for the market’s spread between the overnight index swap (OIS) and federal funds rate…

  • Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Defensives: US Thematic Basket Movers

    The S&P 500 saw a reversal of gains from overnight, driven by a hot PPI number that pushed yields higher ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. However, geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on the market, with Iran vowing to retaliate against recent strikes on senior leadership and a major gas field. As a result,…

  • The Temporary Buffer: Understanding the Divergence in Brent and WTI Prices

    The recent stability in Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices may have some market participants feeling complacent, but a closer look reveals that this apparent stability is actually a temporary buffer created by regional inventory overhangs, benchmark composition, and policy interventions. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the factors driving this divergence and…

  • Are We on the Path to Another Energy Shock? Understanding the Risks and Opportunities in the Global Oil Market

    The global oil market has been experiencing a significant upswing in recent years, with Brent crude prices reaching new highs in 2026. However, some analysts have raised concerns that we may be following a similar path to the 2022 Ukraine shock, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices. In this blog post, we…