IBAFIN

Retail investors are gradually returning to the market, with buying activity now sitting at around the 77th percentile compared to the past year. This increase in confidence is likely due to easing geopolitical and energy concerns, which had previously weighed on investor sentiment. Interestingly, while retail investors are returning to the market, their behavior is…

As the session progresses, credit markets are experiencing a notable shift in sentiment. The CDX index is currently wide, decompressing, with High Yield down 20 cents and Investment Grade 0.45bp wider. This sudden change in market dynamics raises questions about the potential for a broader credit deterioration. Flows have been skewed towards better seller risk…

As the ongoing tech sell-off shows no signs of slowing down, UBS’s US retail market making clients experienced significant outflows worth $228 million on Wednesday. The majority of these outflows were seen in semiconductor stocks, which have been consistently accounting for around 20% of retail executed volumes. Leading the tech outflows were Corning ($36 million),…

As the risk-on tone continues to dominate market sentiment, a rally and bull steepening across USD rates has been observed. However, despite this broader trend, persistent demand from real money accounts in the long end has acted as a key constraint on curve steepening. Particularly around the 5% yield level in the 30y sector, investors…

China’s tech sector has seen a significant correction in valuations, with stock prices now trading around 13x forward earnings, which is close to pre-DeepSeek levels. Despite the ongoing investments in AI, infrastructure, and monetization, the market seems to be pricing in AI disappointment rather than acceleration. UBS notes that this convexity could be a positive…

As the technology sector continues to evolve and shape our lives, one industry that has been making waves is the semiconductor market. Over the past year, the semiconductor sector (SMH) has delivered an impressive performance, with returns of +152.6 percent, which is a staggering 4 sigma above the long-run mean. This exceptional growth has raised…

The SOX weekly RSI has reached its highest levels since March 2000, according to a recent tweet from a financial analyst. This significant milestone has left many market observers wondering if it’s a sign of a strengthening market. To understand the implications of this development, let’s take a closer look at the RSI (Relative Strength…