In today’s thematic movers, we focus on the potential for a peace deal in the Middle East, which could have significant implications for various sectors and asset classes. The S&P 500 has bounced on reports that Pakistan’s Army leader may visit Iran this Thursday to announce an agreement, with President Trump confirming that the US is in the “final stages” of talks. Oil and yields have retraced lower, while AI trades and momentum stocks have rebounded firmly.

The UBS Crowding data reveals that bellwether chipmaker Nvidia is still well-held, with a +3.5 sigma score. The UBS view versus the consensus on key numbers such as Q1 revenue ($81 billion vs. $78 billion) and Q2 guide ($90-91 billion vs. $87 billion) suggests that the company is poised for growth.

In terms of sector performance, airlines vs. Mideast Resilient and Iran War laggards vs. Consumer Cyclicals and Rate Cut Winners are seeing a bid. This could be a sign of improved sentiment in the region, which could have a positive impact on various sectors and asset classes.

However, it’s important to note that the Middle East conflict is complex and ongoing, with many factors at play. A peace deal may not be easy to achieve, and there are likely to be significant challenges along the way. Nonetheless, the potential for progress is an encouraging sign, and could have far-reaching implications for global markets and economies.