As we approach the upper end of the range, the NDX futures market is exhibiting a potential bounce. The 50-day moving average provided support earlier this week, and now the focus shifts to resistance levels around 30,400 and 30,800. Chasing the bounce at these levels may seem like a late short-term trade, while fading it could be seen as premature. The key question is whether price will stall at resistance or push into an overshoot before the next directional move emerges.

The recent action in the NDX futures market. After dipping to the lower end of the range, the bounce was swift and decisive, reaching the 50-day moving average. The reaction at this level is important, as it could indicate a shift in sentiment or simply a pause in the downtrend. For now, the path of least resistance appears to be upward, but there are several factors that could influence the trajectory of price movement.

Firstly, the 30,400 level represents the upper end of the range, and a stall at this point would confirm the bounce as a short-term trade. Above this mark, the next resistance level is around 31,200, which could provide additional challenges for buyers. On the other hand, if price breaks above 30,800, it could signal a more significant shift in sentiment and potentially lead to an overshoot towards 31,600 or higher.

Secondly, the overall trend of the market remains bearish, with several key indicators pointing to ongoing selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, indicating that the market is not yet oversold. Similarly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has yet to produce a bullish crossover, which could be a sign of continued weakness in the near term.