While some experts predict a single digit or low double digit global capex upcycle over the next 1-2 years, there are several reasons to believe that there may be upside to these estimates.

Firstly, the current economic landscape is characterized by a number of factors that could support higher investment levels. For instance, interest rates are at historic lows in many parts of the world, making borrowing cheaper and more attractive for businesses and governments. Additionally, the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, with many countries experiencing steady growth despite challenges such as trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Secondly, there are signs of a pickup in investment in certain sectors, such as technology and healthcare. These sectors have historically been drivers of economic growth, and their increased investment could help to drive overall capex growth. Furthermore, the ongoing digital transformation in many industries is likely to continue to create new opportunities for investment in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.

Thirdly, the global economy has a history of experiencing cyclical upswings in capex growth. While the current upcycle may be slower than previous ones, it is important to remember that past performance is not always indicative of future results. In fact, some analysts argue that the current economic environment could be setting the stage for a more robust capex recovery in the years ahead.

Finally, there are signs of increased government support for investment in certain areas. For example, many governments have announced plans to invest heavily in infrastructure and green technologies, which could help to drive capex growth in these sectors. Additionally, some countries are exploring new ways to stimulate investment, such as tax incentives and other forms of support.