Equities are trading in the green today despite a hotter than expected CPI print this morning. The August Core CPI print came in at +0.29% m/m, which is firmer than expected, with notable strength in telephone services and travel. This has increased the likelihood of a September hike to around 85%, which could lead to “ripping off the band aid” by pricing certainty in September.

Meanwhile, the technology sector is seeing strength, with the SMH, NDX, and GSTMTAIP Index all up over 1%. Under the hood, ORCL and ADBE are back to unchanged after showing strength in the pre-market. The overall macro “wrong-way” positioning tape appears to be driving these moves rather than idiosyncratic headlines from this morning.

Today marks the conclusion of Goldman’s Communacopia and Technology conference in San Francisco. Yesterday’s meetings struck a bullish tone on the trajectory of AI infrastructure spending, with NVDA’s Huang reinforcing his outlook of $3-4tn by 2030.

In terms of technicals, the ETF as a percent of tape is elevated at 32%, and top of book liquidity is normalizing to $10.11mm. CTAs are now modeled to sell $30mm in a 1-week flat tape and $39mm in a 1-month flat tape. Flows remain balanced overall, with LOs skewed 12% better for sale and HFs skewed 1.7% better for sale.

Overall, the market appears to be focusing on the positive macro implications of the CPI print, rather than any individual stock-specific news. The technology sector in particular is seeing significant strength, with the SMH and NDX both up over 1%. With the Fed meeting next Wednesday at 2pm ET, investors are likely to keep a close eye on developments in the macro space in the coming days.

Leave a Reply

Designed with WordPress

Discover more from IBAFIN

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading