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Will This Time Be Different? Geopolitical Tensions and Market Resilience
The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has been causing significant concern for global markets. However, despite the growing tension, the price action in the market is following a familiar pattern that has been seen in US equities during previous geopolitical shocks. While it may be tempting to assume that this time will…
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The Devastating Impact of Supply Shocks on Global Demand: A Lesson from History
As JPMorgan recently highlighted, supply shocks have a profound effect not just on the supply side of the market but also on demand. History has shown us that four out of the last five oil shocks since the 1970s led to recessions. Today, we are facing an extreme situation with shut-ins surging to unprecedented levels.…
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The Fed Probabilities Game: Will the Market’s Spread Between OIS and Fed Rate Narrow by December 2026?
The Federal Reserve has been signaling a possible interest rate hike in the near future, leading to increased speculation among market participants. In this blog post, we will explore the current state of the Fed probabilities game and examine the potential for the market’s spread between the overnight index swap (OIS) and federal funds rate…
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Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Defensives: US Thematic Basket Movers
The S&P 500 saw a reversal of gains from overnight, driven by a hot PPI number that pushed yields higher ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. However, geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on the market, with Iran vowing to retaliate against recent strikes on senior leadership and a major gas field. As a result,…
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The Temporary Buffer: Understanding the Divergence in Brent and WTI Prices
The recent stability in Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices may have some market participants feeling complacent, but a closer look reveals that this apparent stability is actually a temporary buffer created by regional inventory overhangs, benchmark composition, and policy interventions. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the factors driving this divergence and…
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Are We on the Path to Another Energy Shock? Understanding the Risks and Opportunities in the Global Oil Market
The global oil market has been experiencing a significant upswing in recent years, with Brent crude prices reaching new highs in 2026. However, some analysts have raised concerns that we may be following a similar path to the 2022 Ukraine shock, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices. In this blog post, we…
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Understanding the BTC/Gold Ratio: A Technical Analysis Perspective
The BTC/Gold ratio has been a topic of interest among traders and investors in recent times. While some may view it as a simple pair, technical analysis reveals a complex dynamic at play. In this blog post, we will delve into the reasons behind the recent bounce in the BTC/Gold ratio and what it could…
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Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Market Implications: A Weekend Recap
The global energy landscape was at the forefront of geopolitical tensions over the weekend, as various developments threatened to disrupt oil supplies and impact the overall economy. Here’s a recap of the key events that took place: Iran and Russia have been cooperating on military matters, according to Iranian officials. This comes amidst growing concerns…
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Market Insights: Sentiment Shifts Amid Middle East Conflict and Economic Concerns
The global economy is facing a new challenge as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East weighs heavily on market sentiment. Stagnant consumer spending data, revised down GDP numbers, and oil prices hanging near $100/bbl are causing investors to reassess their risk appetite. However, there are some bright spots in the market, with certain sectors…
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ETFs Dominate Trading Activity: A Sign of Market Volatility?
ETFs have been driving trading activity on the exchange for several days now, with an astonishing 40% of yesterday’s notional volume attributed to these investment vehicles. This is not a new trend, as the past nine sessions have seen an ETF value greater than 35% (the second longest streak in our dataset) of the tape.…
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