The oil exports in the Persian Gulf have recovered to their 2025 average levels, according to a recent note from GS. The recovery is attributed to increased shipments through the Hormuz waterway and via ship-to-ship transfers, despite the attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline and the continuing blockade of Saudi exports by the Houthis.

The estimate from GS suggests that Persian Gulf oil exports, including estimated “dark exports,” have reached 23.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the past week, which is in line with their 2025 average. This marks a significant recovery from the disruptions caused by the recent attacks and blockades.

The attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline, which occurred in late September, had disrupted oil flows to Yanbu for nearly two weeks. However, the increased shipments through the Hormuz waterway and via ship-to-ship transfers have helped mitigate the impact of the disruption.

Moreover, the continuing blockade of Saudi exports by the Houthis has not had a significant impact on the overall oil exports in the region. The Houthis have been blocking the Bab-al-Mandab waterway since mid-August, but the effectiveness of this blockade has been limited due to the use of alternative shipping routes and the availability of other export options.

The recovery of oil exports in the Persian Gulf is a positive development for the region’s economy and energy security. It suggests that the disruptions caused by recent events have been largely mitigated, and that the region’s oil production and exports are returning to normal levels. However, the ongoing tensions and potential future disruptions in the region highlight the need for continued vigilance and cooperation among stakeholders to ensure uninterrupted oil supplies.