Bolsonaro’s unexpected first-round victory in Brazil’s presidential election has left pollsters and political analysts scratching their heads. According to the latest polls, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, delivered a major upset by taking 47.1% of the vote, narrowly defeating his predecessor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.1%. This outcome was unexpected, as Lula was widely expected to win the election in the first round.

The strength of Bolsonaro’s performance was broad, as he outperformed in all three major battlegrounds: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. In São Paulo, Bolsonaro won 51.9% of the vote, while Lula obtained 38.2%. In Minas Gerais, Bolsonaro obtained 48.3% of the vote, while Lula obtained 43.2%. And in Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro won 53.0% of the vote, while Lula obtained 39.4%. These results indicate that Bolsonaro’s support was more widespread than previously thought.

Furthermore, the right had a strong night further down the ballot, with conservative candidates outperforming in several key Senate and gubernatorial races. This suggests that the election may have been a turning point for Brazil’s political landscape, with the right gaining ground and the left facing challenges.

The election now heads to an October 25 runoff, and the key question is where the 7.8% of votes cast for smaller candidates will migrate. Their endorsements could be crucial in determining the outcome of the election.